The broader aim of the present study is to discuss the opportunities and pitfalls for futuregreenhouse gas reductions in the United States. It does so by reviewing past and present USclimate change policies from an implementation perspective, where the main objective is toidentify the factors and conditions affecting policy outcomes. The discussion is intended toanswer three major questions:1) What is currently taking place in the United States in terms of emissiontrends, energy consumption as well as policy initiatives?2) What are the principal factors (political, administrative, economic,institutional and others) that ultimately explain the final outcome ofclimate change policies in the United States?3) What are the possible scenarios with regards to the United States’engagement in international collaboration on climate change?In addition, the report elaborates extensively on the trend of recent initiatives by states todevelop their own programs to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This question of loweradministrative units driving the development in federal or other multi-level type systems ishighly relevant for our understanding of the US (it could also enhance our appreciation forwhat is going on in the European Union.The analysis demonstrates a complex interaction between institutional, economic, andpolitical factors, largely framed by the federal system of governance and the practice ofCommon Law. This generates a number of general and specific observations. Some of themore important are:• The United States is by far the largest greenhouse gas emitter and energyconsumer in the world with a rapid growth in both areas. There are noindications that either trend is slowing down.• The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions poses a larger challenge to theUnited States than to many other countries, mainly because of the structure ofthe economy which has more than half of its electricity from coal-fired powerplants.• The likelihood of the United States ratifying the Kyoto Protocol is virtually nil,regardless of who becomes president after this year’s election. There is simplynot enough political support for the Kyoto process and an almost generalagreement that the treaty largely disfavors the US economy.• Current US climate change policies, as laid out in the Bush Administration’sGlobal Climate Change Initiative, makes an explicit claim of seeking long-termsolutions to global warming through the application of efficiency-targets,reliance on science and technology development, and voluntary measures. Theplan has been severely disputed and many observers have criticized it forprimarily serving corporate interests. There may be some merit to thisargument, even though a similar dispute on policy content is largely ideological.

• The most serious obstacle to more proactive climate change policies in theUnited States is, instead, the ways in which the Bush Administration discretelyhas tried to influence the subsequent implementation of policies bymanipulating regulations, stalling administrative processes, reallocatingbudgets, and occasionally even disregarding science in order to prevent furtherreductions of greenhouse gases. These are in themselves serious violations offundamental democratic principles such as transparency.• Another major obstacle to the successful implementation of climate changepolicies is the deep fiscal crisis that most states are facing. In the last few years,states have lost several of their main revenue sources, while at the same timehaving been forced to take on the costs and responsibilities for a number ofservices previously covered by the federal government. Thus, under the currentcircumstances of relatively high unemployment rates (or the threat of suchunemployment), climate change mitigation not likely to be a priority issue.• An important trend in light of these issues is the emerging set of climate changeinitiatives currently evolving at the regional, state and local levels in the UnitedStates. This phenomenon, which involves a spectrum of innovative efforts,deserves particular attention since many of these policy initiatives emerge in thecontext of a lack of federal policies. At the same they are well in line with theAmerican federal tradition, where most major policy issues through historyhave been initiated at the state level and thereafter confirmed by the federalgovernment.• Another intriguing issue from these observations is the question of whatpossibly encourages states to take these types of initiatives. One way toapproach the issue is to frame it as a matter of ‘competition’ where statescompete over, among other things, resources and external support. This notionof ‘competition’ is useful in the sense that it provides a conceptual tool toexplore the interaction between the public and private sector. By discussingwhat competition means for both state and private actors we may be able toidentify the circumstances for synergetic effects to emerge or key processesbecome stalled.