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Impact assessment of global megatrends: Two case studies connecting global megatrends to regional topics
Federal Environment Agency Germany – Umweltbundesamt.
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. 202100-1975.
Responsible organisation
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This report gives an overview how global megatrends can influence topics on regional and local level. The report demonstrates how qualitative modelling and system thinking approach can be applied to analyse the possible impact of global megatrends to the regional topic of resource scarcity, demonstrated in two case studies. In the first case study, a generic qualitative model is developed to explain a general pattern of resource scarcity on a EU regional scale. Typical entry points of political measures are shown as well as how the eleven global megatrends – described by the European Environment Agency – can be connected to such a model. Potentially, some of the global megatrends will increase the problem of resource scarcity while others will put relieve on the challenge. A third group of megatrends has apparently now impact on the resource scarcity pattern. In the same way, the possible impact of the policy measure can be compared.In the second case study, a qualitative model is built to explain the impact of the global megatrends upon the Swedish environmental goals. The case study illustrates how the different scales: local, EU regional and the global scale connect through the megatrends, and how they impact the possibility of fulfilling the Swedish environmental goals. In conclusion, we are able to demonstrate that the global megatrends put in nearly all cases more burden to environmental challenges respectively the environmental goals. The potential impact of global megatrends differs in time and spatial scale. Generally, the methodology of qualitative modelling has proven to be a powerful approach to assess the potential impact of global megatrends to regional or concrete topics as well as to assess the potential impact of policy measures in terms of goal reaching.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket, 2014. , p. 86
Series
Rapport / Naturvårdsverket, ISSN 0282-7298 ; 6602
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:naturvardsverket:diva-9137ISBN: 978-91-620-6602-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:naturvardsverket-9137DiVA, id: diva2:1609787
Available from: 2021-11-09 Created: 2021-11-09 Last updated: 2021-11-09Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf